Publications

LSESU Economics Society Research Division

Jia, J., Akay, B., Leitloff, P., & Wang, A. (2021). Inflation under FIRE: Deviations and Explanations. Rationale, 3.

We examine established empirical evidence on deviations of inflation expectations from the Full-Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. However, these empirical facts offer seemingly contradictory conclusions. We seek to reconcile these findings using a new piece of empirical evidence and a parsimonious model, adapted from the methodology of Angeletos, Huo and Sastry (2020). We confirm that all empirical facts can be explained by a combination of dispersed, noisy information and over-extrapolation.

Casalena, F., Aggarwal, U., Marshall, C., Tapak, T., & Leitloff, P. M. (2020). Investigating Monetary and Macroeconomic Policy in the Bretton Woods Era: Evidence From France. Rationale, 2.

We attempt to develop a new methodology of inquiry in order to assess the effects of monetary policy during the Bretton Woods Era. Building on the data and the findings of Monnet (2014) on monetary policy in France in the period 1946-1972, we adopt the Local Projections Model (LPM) developed by Jorda (2005) in order to obtain multiple impulse-response functions of endogenous real and monetary macroeconomic variables to domestic and foreign monetary policy shocks. Our results are broadly consistent with a standard open-economy Mundell-Fleming model and confirm the consensus view on monetary policy implementation in that period.

Office of National Statistics Renaissance Prize

Han, B., Leitloff, P., Yang, S., & Zou, E. Is a UK Government commitment to the Sustain-able Development Goals good for the economy and business in general?. BROWN JOURNAL OF PHILOSOPHY, POLITICS & ECONOMICS, 5(1), 222.

One aspect of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) is a sustainable use of natural resources and comprehensive environmental protection, mandating a significant change in economic and industrial practices. This discussion paper investigates the impact of a government commitment to the implementation of the UN SDGs relating to natural capital on the economy and business in the United Kingdom. We evaluate existing research and governmental policy declarations. The investigation finds that greater certainty around environmental regulations has a net benefit on business performance and that positive spillovers exist already. Policy gaps in waste and energy regulation exist. We also argue that a more accurate tracking of the progress in the SDGs leads to more commitment and better policymaking. This paper won the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) Renaissance Prize in April 2020.